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March 09, 2009

Death of Email: Not a Minute Too Soon

Email is dead!

OK, maybe not yet, but the latest news certainly suggests the end is inevitable: Social networking has now passed email in global use. Here are the highlights (from Nielsen via Mashable):

New stats from Nielsen Online show that by the end of 2008, social networking had overtaken email in terms of worldwide reach. According to the study, 66.8% of Internet users across the globe accessed “member communities” last year, compared to 65.1% for email.

Some other key findings from the report:

- Globally, Facebook reaches 29.9% of global Internet users, versus 22.4% for MySpace.

- MySpace remains the most profitable social network, generating an estimated $1 billion in revenue versus $300 million for Facebook in 2008.

- Facebook is the top social network in all countries except Germany, Brazil, and Japan (Nielsen still has MySpace as tops in US in the report, but as of January ’09, that had changed).

- On Twitter, CNN, The New York Times, and BBC have the greatest reach among mainstream media companies as of late February.

Details are here: http://mashable.com/2009/03/09/social-networking-more-popular-than-email/

It’s worth mentioning that “member communities” is a pretty broad definition of social networking. It encompasses more, obviously, than formal Facebook-style social networks—it essentially includes every kind of online space where people can interact with each other!

What this points to for me is less that social networks are better than email and more that email is an obsolete tool. Simply put, there isn’t a single thing you can do with email that you can’t do better with a different tool. (And feel free to challenge that point if you like!)

The reason email, like the occasional tape deck, is still around is that it’s been a dominant norm for business communications for long enough that people depend on it. It's a standard.

But rest assured, in the same way email for personal social use is fading, it will also fade in business. It’s just a matter of time, and obviously it won’t happen overnight. And no, email won't disappear off the face of the earth. It'll go the way of snail-mail instead: Relegation to use by Luddites, a few innovative specialized uses (a la Netflix with snail-mail), and saturation with junk.

The transition to a new set of web-based communication and collaboration tools is already well underway, and it’s happening partly invisibly: The new web-based tools, for now, integrate really well with email. You can post to a Typepad blog through email, edit a SocialText wiki through email, update a Basecamp discussion thread through email, and so on. Email users the world over are, at this very moment, authoring blogs and editing wikis, some without knowing it!

The first step in supplanting a standard is to build in compatibility with it, and that's what the newer tools are doing. Email lovers beware! Your demise is at hand!

Ok ok, clearly I have a personal vendetta against email. My point is, so should everyone.

What do you think?

March 18, 2008

Self-Organizing for Discovery: Relatedness in User-Generated Content

The quality of user-generated content varies widely. As I discussed in an earlier post, it's possible to separate the wheat from the chaff using combinations of explicit and implicit metadata. But once you've identified the good stuff, you start to find more and more of it. User-generated content on successful sites accumulates in real time--lots of it. How do you present it in meaningful ways?  How do you keep the presentation of "best" content fresh? How do you make it findable, rememberable, parsable? You need to set it up to self-organize, and creating a folksonomy is a great way to start.

In a traditional folksonomy (there are several uncommon kinds I won't get into now), users add "tags" or labels to individual content objects. These tags become the basis for a living, breathing categorization scheme that informs search and navigation. On sites like Flickr, folksonomy is used in powerful ways to organize photos into a multi-level hierarchy, which can be filtered by "interestingness" (Flickr's quality concept), by location, by camera, and more to produce dazzlingly multifaceted content organization. Take a look at this page, a Flickr "tag cluster" filtered by interestingness:

 

One strength of tagging systems is that they can organize content across an unlimited number of pivots (though the value of that capability, in terms of informing navigation, decreases as the number of pivots increases). For example, an apple can be tagged with both "fruit" and "red," making it findable within category schemes based on either food type or color.

This is really wonderful stuff. But folksonomy as rendered by tags has its limitations, especially in contexts where there are fewer content objects or less incentive for users to take action to tag them.

In such situations, creating dynamic relationships between objects based on combinations of explicit and implicit metadata adds new layers of meaning, helping users discover content of interest.

There are lots of ways to accomplish this. I'll describe a few in this post, but what it all boils down to is increasing discoverability by grouping objects and presenting them in association with each other. If you're interested in one battery charger, for example, there's a decent chance you'll be interested in another. But from there it gets a little more complicated.

 

Basic Similarity

When I say basic similarity, I actually have in mind a specific kind of rule governing the association of content objects, namely, that they share an attribute. For example, when I view a video on a social media site, the system might suggest other videos I might want to see based on a common tag, a shared word in the title, or a common creator.

But in systems with user-generated content, there are often a huge number of objects. Most often, there needs to be a threshold of similarity applied in order to narrow the number of similar items, such as a certain number of common tags applied, shared tags within taxonomic groupings, or association within purchase patterns.

 

Complex Similarity

Basic similarity is rarely enough. Imagine shopping, for example, for a camera lens. Looking at a detail page for a particular lens, you see a list of "related items." If this list were to include every other lens on Amazon.com, you'd have a gigantic list that wouldn't be helpful. Likewise with a list of all Canon products. But a list with multiple shared attributes, such as "lens" and "Canon" is potentially more useful. But you can take it even further than that by layering in implicit metadata--information provided by people.

In this screenshot from Amazon, there are implicit and explicit metadata layers added to the basic similarity construct. In this case, the user-driven similarity is among search queries. The set of similar queries describes a set of user sessions in which purchases were completed from within the objects returned by the searches. The objects purchased.are therefore similar.

You might wonder: Couldn't you get to this set of relationships using simple metadata from within a controlled vocabulary? The answer is no, because the similarity is ultimately constructed of value judgements by humans. People interested in the same stuff as me decided to buy these items. That's a layer of social information you can only get with robust behavioral metadata. Here's an abstract picture of how this looks:

 

Each of the ovals represents a content object, and each line represents a set of shared attributes. The attributes shared are the same in every case.

 

Complementarity

Complementarity is not the same thing as similarity, and it's very useful to think specifically about the difference. Objects that are complementary are not "like each other" in the sense that similar objects are. Instead, they sort of... "go together."

But what does it mean for objects to go together? How can we understand the relationships between peanut butter and jelly, peanut butter and honey, peanut butter and bananas? Each peanut butter complement has a relationship with peanut butter, but they don't share the same relationship with each other (I'm sure someone out there eats honey and jelly sandwiches, but that's not complementarity, it's surrealism). 

So the relationships among complementary items are differently structured than the relationships among similar items. Whereas items similar to a given object are also generally similar to each other, that's not generally the case among complementary items. You can picture webs of similarity, but complementarity, from a structural perspective, looks more like a spokes on a wheel.

Here's an example from Amazon to illustrate the point:

This illustration is from the detail page of a camera lens. The lens is the primary content object on this page. Each of the items in this list are secondary content objects--each "goes with" the lens. The secondary objects are related to the primary object in a singular relationship, and they are meaningfully related to each other mainly by virtue of their parallel relationships with the primary object.

The lens is the hub of the wheel, and each of the items pictured above is connected to the hub via a spoke.

But if complementarity is a wheel-shape, how do we understand the nature of the spokes in a way that allows us to build complementary relationships into a web site architecture?

Complementarity is about supporting a core function of, completing, or adding value to an object. So to architect complementarity we need to understand a type of "aboutness," the thing that the object is good for.

Behavioral metadata doesn't tell the whole story of complementarity. Here's a case where hybrids of taxonomy and folksonomy come in handy.

 

Preference Among Similar

Adding yet another layer of social data to groups of similar objects, you can create another kind of value. In this example from Amazon, similar items are ranked by strength of correlation between object views and purchases. Here an implicit judgement, expressed through sales conversion, shows which of the similar objects is most preferred by other users.

Very useful for comparison shopping, especially among groups of complex, similar, or specialized objects (like digital cameras). Here's what this type of relatedness looks like in an abstract architectural view:

 

The objects are identified as similar by virtue of their shared attributes. The percentage indicated on each object indicates its percentage of total purchases within the group as a whole.

Preference needn't always be based on implicit metadata like sales conversation, though. Here's an example of preference among similar from YouTube that uses ratings. After a video plays all the way through, the YouTube video player offers up some suggestions about what to watch next. The suggestions are similar to the video that just played, in this case on the basis of their shared authorship and title words. Preference is expressed via ratings, so the suggestions are the top-rated similar videos. 

And this makes perfect sense: If you watch a video all the way through, there's a decent chance you liked it and would be interested in discovering similar videos of high quality.

 

Affinity Recommendations

Simply put, affinity recommendations are recommendations based on people with whom you have preferences in common. The logic goes: We both loved Friday the 13th Parts 1 through 6; you've seen Halloween IV and liked it; therefore there's a decent chance I'll like Halloween IV.

Netflix has made a huge investment in its recommendation engine, and affinity recommendations are a huge part of how it works. Netflix has recognized that choosing a movie to rent is very often a socially-driven activity. Faced with thousands of choices, we turn to friends for advice. But the best recommendations aren't made just by friends--they're made by people with whom we share a common taste in movies. Netflix makes the degree of commonality explicit. Here's how it looks:

 

Netflix has built in a number of social features around explicit relationships with the people we know, and they're constantly tinkering. But affinity recommendations aren't always situated within existing relationships. In many cases the shared preferences are enough (including on Netflix, in the absence of "friends").

Here's what this looks like in the abstract:

 

 

In this diagram, the big bubbles represent people. The people are color-coded to indicate a profile of preferences. In the Netflix example, these preferences are explicit--ratings of particular movies. (I'm not sure whether Netflix also looks at rating patterns within classes of similar movies--but they certainly could if they needed to build a more extrapolated flavor of affinity. My guess is that they have sufficient volume of ratings that they don't need to extrapolate.) But preferences needn't be explicit in all situations. Preferences can also be gleaned through behavioral metadata and through algorithmic combinations of explicit and implicit metadata.

In this diagram, the two people represented by red bubbles share preferences for objects represented by small bubbles A, B, C, D, and E. Because person 2 also liked objects F and G, the system can present affinity recommendations of objects F and G to person 1.

Obviously, related ness gets pretty complicated at this level. For example, if person 1 has already expressed a non-preference for objects F and G, they'll be annoyed if you keep recommending them. So you need to build controls for that kind of scenario.

Nonetheless, the payoff for a strong system of affinity recommendations can be huge, in terms of overall perceived quality, conversion, and social collateral. If you're working with a system that includes a strong base of dedicated users and many content objects, you can add a lot of value.

 

The Devil in the Details

As with all social systems, even the most carefully-built system is likely to function a little different than you imagine after you let a bunch of unpredictable humans play with it for a while.

Keep close tabs on the health of your related items engine. Plan for and retain budget to tweak ongoingly. Establish KPI's to measure system health, and run A / B tests to optimize performance.

Above all, as always, have fun with your metadata!

August 29, 2007

A New Twist on Social Media from Microsoft: Art of Office

UPDATE at bottom.

Yesterday's launch of Art of Office from Microsoft's Macintosh Business Unit (the group that creates software for Macs) was a great milestone for me. We started working on the project back in December of 2006, so naturally I've been chomping at the bit to see what happens when we launch.

The site attempts several very interesting things at once:

  • It's meant to stretch the perception that Office is purely a productivity tool and extend users' sense of what can be done in Office beyond mundane "work" chores, a nice gesture toward the Office for Mac's creativity-inclined target audience and an interesting extension of Office's brand position.
  • It creates a valuable resource for Office for Mac users: a document library they can pull from and use, remix, etc. (Everything's licensed for attributed reuse under a Creative Commons license.)
  • It builds community around a shared value (creativity) while adding real, tangible, practical value (reusable documents).

We tested the early concepts for this site in the usability lab at ZAAZ, and we got some great initial reactions just to the home page. Lots of participants raised eyebrows in skepticism at the idea of "art" presented in connection with Microsoft Office. We worked hard to present some awesome work in a compelling framework, and ultimately found people very willing to suspend their initial disbelief. Check out the hot Flash work in the upper portion of the main landing pages.

Most people ended up feeling like the art / Office concept is pretty cool. And participants quickly realized they could contribute (we placed the proverbial BIG, YELLOW UPLOAD BUTTON right on the home page). What really excited test participants, though, was the realization that they could download and reuse the documents on the site. This is the real power of the site, the value offering Zeus Jones calls "marketing as a service."

Another piece of this that I think is interesting is that Art of Office enters the document-focused social space with something a little bit different than most of what exists already. For example, check out the following illustration from Rashmi Sinha, one of the minds behind the brilliant Slideshare:

What excites me here is that I think Art of Office introduces several new axes to this landscape: one is "content in document" to "document as content," another is "collaborative" to "single author," and yet another is "view documents" to "share documents." Art of Office manages to live in a number of different places along all these continuums--where individual participants can do the activity that suits them at different times.

Microsoft Watch had nice things to say. I'd love to hear what you think as well, and I can't wait to get a sense of the reaction that matters most--the reaction of participants.

UPDATE: Art of Office hit the front page of del.icio.us today, and is being noticed widely across the Web. And as I predicted earlier, the haters are out in force in comment threads. When the generalized anti-Microsoft fury subsides, what will happen?

May 30, 2007

Another Great "Plain English" Video from Lee at Commoncraft

I saw a post from Lee the other day saying he was working on another video to follow up his roaring success on "RSS in Plain English," which basically went gold. Says Lee:

The video was posted on April 23rd, 2007. Today is May 28th and in just over a month the video has been...

Not bad. It did a ton for his blog as well, adding over 400 subscribers, etc. My thinking was, he really hit the nail on the head in terms of finding the right topic--well-known but not well understood technology, explained in a fun, understandable way. A home run.

I wondered to myself whether he'd be able to duplicate that success with an equally compelling topic. And--does it matter, or does one huge success, sustained with more-modest follow-up, get the job done?

And here's the next installment, "Wikis in Plain English."

Lee's really having fun with this, obviously. It'll be fun to see the response.

March 22, 2007

More on Wannabe Presidents

David Silver posted today on wannabepresidents.com, which I also posted about earlier this week, without knowing David was behind the site. I'm not one bit surprised, though.

David Silver is a friend of David de Ugarte, the creator of Feevy. I was intrigued when the second David commented on one of my earlier posts that Feevy is "-a piece of cyberactivism trying to change the focus in blogosphere-." Now I'm starting to see how that intent will be manifested on real sites.

It's great to see inspired minds mixing it up on important issues.

February 16, 2007

Debate Results: There Is No Debate

Tuesday's debate with Gary was fun, as expected. Along with the general explanation of folksonomy, I offered a number of digs, some personal, some professional, and generally tried to win the debate by:

  1. Changing the subject to unrelated topics, such as Gary's shoes, sweater, and age.
  2. Portraying Gary as an extremist.

It worked. Folks laughed, including Gary, and a number of the students were excited enough about being part of the future of the Internet that they peppered me with inquiries about whether my employer might hire an intern.

Here are a couple of the key (non-irrelevant) slides:

Equation

 

My point here was inarguable (because I had the mic). And if you accept the first point then the subsequent seals the argument:

Marketshare







Yes, that's marketshare. In the past year. (Data is from PEW.)

Good fun!

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